After the shortage, it ushered in a wave of price increases, and the automobile chip war was on the verge.

After the news that "North-South Volkswagen stopped production" broke out half a month ago, the price hike of the chip industry finally broke out inevitably.

on December 17th, foreign media reported that TSMC, the wafer foundry, would cancel the original discount price. TSMC had previously offered a discount of about 3% for the OEM of p>12-inch wafers for large customers, but in 221, they would cancel this discount, which means that the OEM cost of large customers will increase.

In the first half of this month, the news that North and South Volkswagen stopped production due to chip shortage shocked the domestic automobile industry. Last Friday, audi ag issued a statement saying that due to the epidemic and the subsequent sharp drop in sales in the automobile industry, semiconductor manufacturers have allocated more of their production capacity to other customer departments such as consumer electronics, resulting in the shortage of electronic components in the whole industry, including Volkswagen Group, when the automobile market recovers. Therefore, Volkswagen Group needs to adjust its automobile production in China, North America and Europe to meet the supply situation in the first quarter of 221.

Although the official of China Automobile Association said earlier that "the shortage of chips reported by the media is real, but it is not as serious as reported by some media", it is hard not to make people panic and associate with the news that suppliers have raised prices one after another.

at present, the autonomy of automobile chips is still very limited, and the space for efforts is very broad but very difficult. Behind the chip price surge, which companies will be under pressure from the chip shortage? Which enterprises will it bring opportunities to?

Crisis and opportunity coexist, which will be a battle for the capacity of auto companies and a market strategy war for domestic chip companies. Both autonomous car companies and semiconductor companies should be prepared for war.

TSMC is not alone in the price increase of chips.

According to market research institute Strategy? According to the latest report of Analytics, the top five automotive semiconductor manufacturers in the world in 219 are Infineon, NXP, Renesas Electronics, Texas Instruments and stmicroelectronics.

due to the epidemic situation and insufficient expectations for chip demand, NXP and Renesas Electronics have already released news of tight production capacity before the news of production suspension broke out by Volkswagen.

in a letter to customers, NXP said that in order to solve the unforeseen cost increase brought by suppliers, the company "reluctantly" raised the prices of all products.

Renesas Electronics also sent a price increase notice to customers on November 3, saying that due to the increase in the cost of raw materials and packaging substrates, it is planned to raise the prices of some analog and power products from January 1, 221. Renesas also explained that the company recently faced the pressure of inventory, cost increase and product transportation risks, and had to raise the price to ensure the continuous input and production of these products.

as the world's leading chip foundry giant, TSMC will face price increases, and other top automotive semiconductor manufacturers are naturally not immune.

For this industry-wide chip shortage, the China Automobile Association combined with the feedback from the research enterprises to sum up the following reasons:

First, the global chip industry's capacity investment was relatively conservative in recent years, and the imbalance between supply and demand had been manifested before the COVID-19 epidemic, and the outbreak of the epidemic intensified the caution of capacity investment. In the first half of this year, the chip industry made conservative predictions for the consumer electronics and automobile markets, and made insufficient predictions and preparations for the development of China's automobile market in the second half of this year. Therefore, since November, when China's market grew better against the trend in the second half of this year, the chip gap began to appear.

Secondly, driven by the development of 5G technology, the demand for chips in the field of consumer electronics is increasing rapidly this year, and the chip production capacity is challenged, which has seized the production capacity of some automobile chips.

and this trend may be further intensified in 221. At the same time, many chip manufacturers are cutting the necessary capital expenditure in the automobile industry, raising prices and reducing the production quota of chips in the automobile industry. According to media reports, TSMC's advanced process capacity in 221 has been? The reservation is sold out. Among them, apples? iPhone? Application processor and? Arm? Architecture computer processors have expanded the scale of mass production, accounting for more than 8% of TSMC's 5nm chip production capacity.

In addition, Europe and Southeast Asia were affected by the second wave of COVID-19 epidemic, and major chip suppliers reduced their production capacity or shut down one after another, further aggravating the imbalance between supply and demand of chips.

the more essential reason is that the degree of electrification, intelligence and networking of automobiles is constantly improving, and the bicycle value of automotive chips is constantly increasing, which will promote the global demand for automotive chips faster than the growth rate of vehicle sales.

with the continuous explosion of demand, the production capacity has been weakened and divided, and it is difficult to want to have car chips.

The shortage is hard to heal, and car companies should be psychologically prepared.

Since the COVID-19 epidemic broke out in 219, it has not ended yet. So when will this industrial cold wave about chips last? Including East Korea Hi-Tech (DB? Hitek), UMC and SMIC, among other chip foundries, have recently issued statements saying that their factories have been operating at full capacity since the third quarter.

Infineon said, "At present, we are increasing investment to build a new chip factory in Austria, and we will also adjust our global manufacturing capacity". Although semiconductor manufacturers are already expanding their production capacity, it will take 6-9 months to fill the current capacity gap.

Continental Group, a multinational parts giant, said that at present, semiconductor manufacturers all over the world have begun to expand their production capacity to cope with the sudden increase in supply demand, but considering the normal delivery time of the semiconductor industry, the current supply shortage will be improved within 6 to 9 months.

according to the estimates of various manufacturers, it is expected that the gap will spread to 221, but it is not sure whether it will really end in 221. Sheng Linghai, an analyst at Gartner, a research institute, said: "Although manufacturers have been working hard to increase production, the problem of chip shortage may be difficult to be alleviated within a year or two."

among the reasons summarized by the China Automobile Association, it is difficult to reverse the trend of consumer electronics seizing the production capacity of automobile chips for a while. Secondly, it is still unknown whether the global epidemic can be effectively controlled next year, so Sheng Linghai's conservative estimate is reasonable.

however, for this "famine", independent car companies seem to disagree.

Weilai executives said, "There is no impact for the time being, Weilai has made preparations in advance." Xpeng Motors and LI also said that they were not affected, and everything was normal in production and operation. Independent brands such as Hongqi, GAC and Dongfeng, and joint venture brands such as FAW Toyota, Guangqi Honda and Beijing Benz also said that they have not been affected by the shortage of chips. BYD even said calmly: "BYD has a complete set of industrial chains in new energy batteries and chips, which can not only be fully self-sufficient, but also have surplus for external supply." It is reported that BYD Semiconductor is actively promoting marketization and has completed the A and A+ rounds of strategic investment.

Only the person in charge of a Japanese joint venture brand showed a little concern, "There is a supply risk of chips. At present, the normal supply, spare parts have a certain amount of advance stock. "

is the optimism of many independent car companies really bottomed out or lack of objective prediction of the future "lack of core" dilemma? It remains to be further tested by the chip shortage next year. However, after all, independent car companies are limited in size, and they will not stop production and close down if they really encounter a chip shortage, but the public will not be calm.

In the first half of this month, Volkswagen North and South stopped production, and last Friday, it was necessary to adjust its automobile production in China, North America and Europe to adapt to the supply situation in the first quarter of 221.

The so-called "too big to adjust", as an automobile giant with annual sales exceeding 1 million vehicles, any change in the supply chain is a huge problem for Volkswagen. In the face of the chip shortage that will last for nearly a year, the problem that the public has to face has just begun. Toyota, Hyundai and other companies under the same volume level will probably face challenges. With the promotion of all parties, the autonomy of automobile chips is imminent

For the automobile industry, this is a "famine", but it is a powerful driving force for the rise of the independent chip industry.

after the news of TSMC's price increase and Volkswagen's adjustment of global automobile production broke out, yesterday morning, the domestic chip industry chain sector ushered in strength, with 154 chips rising, 5 flat and 36 falling.

It can be seen that crisis arrival is often accompanied by opportunities.

Just last Thursday (December 17th), the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Announcement on Corporate Income Tax Policies for Promoting the High-quality Development of Integrated Circuit Industry and Software Industry. The policy will be implemented as of January 1, 221.

this is the first time that a 1-year income tax exemption policy has been introduced for chip manufacturing. Enterprises or projects that are encouraged by the state to produce integrated circuits with a line width of less than 28 nanometers (inclusive) and an operating period of more than 15 years shall be exempted from enterprise income tax from the first year to the tenth year.

as early as the beginning of August, the State Council issued several policies to promote the high-quality development of integrated circuit industry and software industry in the new period, which supported the development of integrated circuit industry and software industry from eight aspects: finance and taxation, investment and financing, research and development, import and export, talents, intellectual property rights, market application and international cooperation. The above announcement is the implementation of fiscal and taxation policies and measures. In addition, on November 2th, the National New Energy Automobile Technology Innovation Center also took the lead in establishing the China Automobile Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance, which will promote domestic substitution and international cooperation of automobile chips and related core technologies, build a complete independent supply system and internal circulation pattern of key automobile chips, ensure the safety and stability of the industrial chain, and enhance the core competitiveness of China's automobile chip industry.

driven by both policy and demand, China's independent chip industry is bound to usher in an outbreak in the next two years. At present, many China enterprises have "entered the market" to make their own automobile chips.

As mentioned above, BYD is now self-sufficient and externally supplied, and the self-developed IGBT has occupied 18% of the domestic market.

Horizon has shipped 1, vehicle-level artificial intelligence chips on Changan UNI-T.

In October, Yikatong Technology, which is controlled by Geely, and China * * * of Arm jointly funded the establishment of Xinqing Technology, which has made R&D and mass production plans for automotive chips such as intelligent cockpit, autonomous driving and microcontroller, and will release the first 7nm vehicle-standard chip next year.

In addition, there are many enterprises such as Black Sesame Intelligent Technology ...

According to the statistics of China semiconductor industry, there are 2,218 domestic chip design enterprises in 22, an increase of 24.6% compared with 219.

However, under the background that China occupies one third of the global automobile market, the market share of domestic automobile semiconductors is less than 3%. Zou Guangcai, deputy secretary-general of China Automobile Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance and deputy general manager of National New Energy Automobile Technology Innovation Center, once said that at present, the self-research rate of domestic automobile chips is only 1%, and 9% of automobile chips must be imported from abroad.

although many independent semiconductor companies are working hard, the market orientation is doomed to divide the production capacity of automobile chips by consumer electronics.

"At present, the automotive chip industry is in a state of' a hundred schools of thought contend and a hundred flowers blossom'. However, China's in-vehicle chip enterprises started late and the overall development was slow. In particular, factors such as a longer development cycle, a higher threshold for entrepreneurship, and a longer payback period required for in-vehicle chips have led to fewer players in the market. " Li Xingyu, vice president of Horizon Market Development and Strategic Planning, said.

It can be seen that seeking the rise of the automobile chip industry is not simply a market behavior, which requires not only the strong promotion of policies, but also the industry responsibility of enterprises. This is no longer "eating crabs" in the usual sense, but more like eating hard bones.

This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.