Household registration, triplets, various housing subsidies, can the property market pick up?

Wuhu, Anhui, for qualified young talents, the housing subsidy is the highest 10%.

In Huizhou, Guangdong, the loan amount of qualified talent provident fund is not limited by the deposit balance.

12 14, the two places simultaneously released real estate-related promotion policies. In fact, within one week after the Central Economic Work Conference, many places have issued relevant policies to implement the conference spirit of "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry because of the city's policy".

Hengyang, Hunan Province, as a city that implemented the spirit of the conference earlier, issued the housing subsidy policy on 65438+February 10. 65438+February 65438+March, leiyang city, under Hengyang, held a symposium to promote the development of real estate industry, and put forward "to promote the healthy development of real estate industry in a virtuous circle", "to solve the reasonable demands of real estate development enterprises according to law" and "to do a seamless connection between real estate enterprises and financial institutions".

Compared with first-and second-tier cities, the inventory backlog in third-and fourth-tier cities is extremely obvious, which has reached the highest value since July 2065438+2006, setting a new high in five years.

The top-level design has been continuously improved, and the regional market has continuously introduced boosting policies. Everyone wants to inject some confidence into this market.

There are various forms of subsidies.

According to the incomplete statistics of the reporters of the National Business Daily, in the past month, ten leeward areas, such as Hohhot, Jingmen, Hengyang, Kaifeng, Nanning, Baoding, Nantong Hai 'an, Chongqing Bishan, Wanzhou, Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture Longli and Lu 'an Jinzhai, have put out real money and silver to boost the market.

65438+February 65438+April, Wuyi County, Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province issued the "Incentive Policy for New Residents of Private Industrial Enterprises in Our County", which will be implemented on June 65438+ 10/next year.

On the same day, Wuhu City, Anhui Province issued the "Notice on the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Housing Subsidies for Young Talents", which will provide housing subsidies to qualified personnel with a maximum subsidy of 10%. The first subsidy is 3% of the purchase price, which will be distributed evenly in three years, and the rest of the purchase price subsidies will be distributed year by year according to the part retained by the applicant in the previous year.

165438+1At the end of October, Hohhot drafted the Implementation Measures for Housing Subsidies for College Graduates in Hohhot and the Implementation Measures for Housing Subsidies for College Graduates in Hohhot (Draft for Comment), which will give 654.38+10,000 yuan, 50,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan to eligible doctoral students, master students and undergraduates respectively.

10 In the middle of June, Jingmen drafted Several Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in the Central City (Draft for Comment). For qualified talents who have graduated within five years and promised to work in the central city for at least five years, within one year from the date of implementation of this opinion, if they purchase the only newly-built commercial housing in the central city for the first time, sign a commercial housing sales contract online and obtain the deed tax payment certificate, they will be given a one-time housing subsidy per household.

In addition to talent introduction, deed tax subsidy is also an important form.

65438+February 10, Hengyang released the Implementation Plan of Financial Purchase Subsidies for New Commercial Housing and Underground Parking Spaces in Hengyang. 202 1, 65438+February, 1 Until May 2022, enjoy 15.

On the same day, Bishan District of Chongqing announced that it would hold a two-month preferential house purchase activity from 202112 to 2022 10. During the activity, new commercial housing (limited to 1 set), parking spaces (no more than 2), business buildings (no more than 5) and office buildings and second-hand houses (limited to 1 set) will be purchased, and those who meet the corresponding conditions can enjoy the purchase subsidy equal to the deed tax paid.

65438+In early February, Kaifeng issued a policy to subsidize those who paid the deed tax of commercial housing from the date of announcement to 202165438+February 23 and met the scope of subsidies, according to 12% of the total deed tax.

It is worth noting that triplets have also become the reason for granting housing subsidies in many places.

In September this year, Linze County, Gansu Province became the first region in China to put forward the concept of housing subsidy for three-child families. Linze County grants 40,000 yuan to permanent families with Linze household registration and two or three children to buy commercial housing in Linze County, and 30,000 yuan to buy commercial housing in centralized residential areas such as Central Market Town, Tunquan Town and Danxia Yang Kang Village.

Since then, Hai 'an City, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province has also issued relevant policies. Second-child families who buy houses again can enjoy the subsidy reduction and exemption of 200 yuan per square meter with their household registration book or birth certificate, and third-child families can enjoy the subsidy reduction and exemption of 400 yuan per square meter.

Baoding is more direct, loosening the property market by promoting the development of passive buildings.

165438+1October 30th, Baoding stipulated in the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Development of Passive Ultra-low Energy Consumption Construction Industry in Baoding that the purchase of passive ultra-low energy consumption commercial housing is not restricted by the regional commodity housing purchase restriction policy; Housing provident fund loans for the purchase of passive ultra-low energy self-occupied housing, the loan amount rose by 20%.

Chen Wenjing, deputy research director of the Index Division of the Central Reference Institute, also told the reporter of National Business Daily: "Recently, the central government explicitly proposed to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and all localities should focus on supporting the release of reasonable housing needs according to the actual situation. In response to the requirements of the central government, under the background of marginal improvement of the real estate credit environment, the city has introduced support policies to stabilize the expectations of buyers and guide the normal release of just-needed and improved housing demand. "

Regarding the effect of the policy, Chen Wenjing thinks: "The introduction of housing subsidy policies in some cities will help to calm the wait-and-see mood of buyers on the one hand, and guide the normal release of reasonable housing demand on the other. In the short term, buyers still need some time to expect stability. However, with the local government speeding up the implementation of "two maintenances", the credit environment has been continuously improved, and relevant supporting policies have been continuously followed up. It is expected that house prices will gradually stabilize and buyers' confidence in home ownership is expected to increase. "

Why Hengyang?

From a microscopic point of view, Hengyang can clearly explain the mechanism behind the introduction of the policy.

As the first city to respond to the policy after the Central Economic Work Conference, Hengyang will subsidize 50% of the deed tax paid for the purchase of new commercial housing during 2002 1, February 1 and 20221. Purchase new commercial housing from February 1 day to March 3 1 day in 2022, and subsidize 30% of the deed tax paid; For those who purchase new commercial housing during April 1 to May 3 1 in 2022, they will be subsidized according to 15% of the deed tax paid; 80% deed tax subsidy will be given to those who buy underground parking spaces from 2002 11February1to 31May 2022.

In short, the sooner you buy a house in Hengyang, the greater the subsidy you enjoy.

The reporter noticed that buyers who want to enjoy Hengyang's housing subsidy need to meet three conditions at the same time: they are limited to buying new commercial housing or underground parking spaces in Hengyang city, and they cannot enjoy subsidies when buying commercial facades or second-hand houses; The online signing time must be 202165438+February1-May 3 1, 2022; Apply for online signing for the record and pay deed tax.

The staff of Hengyang Housing and Construction Bureau told the National Business Daily that the original intention of issuing this document was to implement the "three stable" expectations of the upper level for the real estate market. As for the specific implementation, buyers can go directly to the administrative hall with the relevant documents after signing the contract.

The reporter roughly calculated an account, and Hengyang's subsidy policy can help buyers save 2500- 12000 yuan.

According to the current deed tax standard in Hengyang, the first suite is less than 90 square meters (inclusive), and the deed tax is1%; More than 90 square meters, deed tax1.5%; More than 90 square meters but less than 0.5% of 144 square meters and more than 3% of 144 square meters; The deed tax of the second suite is 3%; Property parking space deed tax 4%.

58 Anjuke data shows that the current house price in Hengyang is 573 1 yuan/square meter, and the deed tax for the first suite of 90 square meters is 5 157 yuan, and 50% can save 2578 yuan; 140 m2 deed tax is about 24,070 yuan, and 50% can be saved 12035 yuan.

Why did Hengyang introduce the policy of "encouraging the purchase of houses"?

According to the local Housing and Construction Bureau, this is to thoroughly implement the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on "no speculation in housing", stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices, stabilize expectations, meet people's housing needs, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The National Business Daily reporter inquired about the market data of Hengyang in recent years and found that although the house price has not changed much, the transaction volume has continued to decline.

According to the data of Anjuke, since 20 18, the overall house price in Hengyang has not changed much, and the house price has only increased by 270 yuan/square meter in the past three years.

However, the transaction volume has dropped significantly.

According to the data of Fangtianxia, from 20 18 to 2020, the turnover of new houses in Hengyang was 30,300 sets, 25,300 sets and 29,800 sets respectively, but in this year, Hengyang only sold1-kloc-0/1.92 million sets, which was far lower than the turnover.

A property consultant in zhengxiang district, Hengyang told the National Business Daily: "Hengyang property market has been in a tepid state since it stepped down from the altar on 20 18. Zhengxiang district is relatively better, and most other areas are in a state of destocking and sideways. Since 10 this year, a number of properties have been priced at a price similar to the prefix of 4 or 5, plus 8,888 yuan to send parking spaces, reflecting that developers are trying their best to go to stock. "

Hengyang is troubled by the long period of chemical removal.

According to the data of Fangtianxia, in the first half of 2002 1. 1.6 million sets of new houses in Hengyang, while the residential inventory in the same period was 34,300 sets. Based on this, it is estimated that the de-melting cycle of Hengyang property market is 1.77 months.

In contrast, non-residential demolition is more difficult, and the demolition cycle is basically more than 60 months. According to the data of Hengyang Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Information Center, by the end of February 2020, the inventory area of non-residential buildings in Hengyang was 2112,700 square meters, up16.52% year-on-year; The inventory de-chemical cycle is 65.07 months.

In other words, Hengyang's non-residential products will take nearly five and a half years to sell out.

Inventory hit a five-year high

From a macro perspective, the real estate market in China has a downward trend recently. In addition to the liquidity crisis in some housing enterprises, the overall sales situation is also getting colder.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities in June was flat at 5438+065438+ 10. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, Guangzhou decreased by 0.6%, and Shenzhen was flat; The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in second-tier cities both decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and the decrease rate was 0.2 and 0. 1 percentage point higher than that of last month.

It should be noted that the sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, the same as last month.

Judging from the national housing boom index, the overall data of China has drawn an obvious inverted V-shape.

As mentioned earlier, recent policies are mostly in third-and fourth-tier cities. The reporter noted that it is these places that have certain high inventory risks.

Yiju Research Institute bluntly stated in the 100 Urban Residential Inventory Report (hereinafter referred to as the report): "At present, the inventory pressure in the national 100 cities has increased significantly, especially the phenomenon that the market turnover has dropped for six consecutive months and the inventory has reached a five-year high."

According to the report, by the end of 1 1, the total inventory of new commercial housing in1000 cities nationwide was 52 1 1 10,000 square meters, up 2. 1% from the previous month and 2. 1% from the previous year. Inventory data showed a positive growth for four consecutive months, while maintaining a positive growth trend for 36 consecutive months. At present, the inventory scale of Baicheng is 2065438+the highest since August 2006, which is a five-year high.

"At present, we need to pay close attention to the inventory pressure of 100 cities. If the inventory pressure and risk are not lifted, the return rate of sales funds of real estate enterprises will further slow down, which will make the current cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises even greater. "

In June 165438+ 10, 100, the supply of new commercial housing in cities was 44.95 million square meters, while the transaction volume was 34.37 million square meters, showing a trend of "supply exceeding demand". Under the current relationship between supply and demand, the biggest problem is that the market turnover data is very weak, which has declined for six consecutive months.

The overall de-chemical cycle is also extending.

165438+ 10 month 100 city's stock-to-sales ratio, that is, the inventory destocking period is 12.5 months, which also means that the market needs to digest these stocks 12.5 months. Observing the urbanization cycle of 100 cities since August 20 16, it generally fluctuates around 10. Since the second half of this year, the ratio of deposit to sales has risen rapidly on the basis of 10 month.

It should be noted that the report shows that "from the perspective of urban structure, the inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities is the most obvious", and the inventory scale has been growing for 37 consecutive months, indicating that the inventory backlog in third-and fourth-tier cities is the most obvious compared with first-and second-tier cities. The data shows that the current inventory of third-and fourth-tier cities is the highest value since July 2065438+2006, which is a five-year high. From the perspective of inventory risk, third-and fourth-tier cities are the largest.

Faced with this situation, the introduction of subsidy policy seems easy to understand.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that third-and fourth-tier cities generally face the problem of high inventory pressure, and the introduction of housing subsidy policies in cities will help accelerate destocking.

"In the context of the current cooling of the real estate market, it is more likely for third-and fourth-tier cities to relax their housing purchase policies, especially for college students, improved housing needs, and three-child families. And there is a high probability that a more relaxed purchase policy will be introduced. "

Chen Wenjing believes that the central government will definitely set the tone for real estate in 2022 at the end of the year, and it is expected that the short-term credit policy will continue to increase its support for the first and improved housing demand under the general tone of "no speculation in housing".

"Local governments will respond to the requirements of the central authorities and take targeted measures to solve the problem of poor real estate-related chains caused by urban policies, speed up landing support policies, reduce loan interest rates, reduce some transaction taxes, improve the efficiency of enterprise pre-sale funds, and optimize pre-sale conditions. There are also fine-tuning expectations. "

Virtuous circle and healthy development

Not only regional policies, but also the recent top-level design has continuously released goodwill to real estate.

The Central Economic Work Conference held from February 8, 65438 to February 8, 10 clearly stated: "Support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to the city's policy."

65438+February 1 1, Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, made it clear at the "20021-2022 China Economic Annual Meeting" that real estate is a pillar industry and housing is the consumption of residents.

12 13, the Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting. The meeting also said: "Implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, speed up the improvement of the housing rental financial policy system, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to the city's policy."

On the same day, the People's Bank of China released the statistical data of individual housing loans in 20021+01year. At the end of 2002 1,1,the balance of personal housing loans was 38. 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 41300 million yuan in the month, an increase of 53.2 billion yuan compared with1.

Yan Yuejin believes that: "The scale of loan balance in mortgage loans has increased, and commercial banks have actively implemented the latest mortgage policy of the central bank and continued to promote lending, which reflects the orientation of supporting reasonable housing consumption demand and further shows that the mortgage market continues to be loose and developed well."

Chen Wenjing said that since the second half of the year, with the tightening of the supervision of real estate credit and pre-sale funds, the sales market and land market have obviously cooled down, the risk problems of individual housing enterprises have been exposed, and market confidence has been further frustrated. From enterprise financing to investment in land acquisition, construction, sales payment, completion and delivery, etc. The virtuous circle at this stage is particularly important for the development of the industry.

"The central economic work adheres to the principle of' keeping the word steady and striving for progress'. As a pillar industry of the national economy, real estate needs to play the role of stabilizer. At present, for the government, it is the most important thing to get through the circulation of all chains in the real estate industry, and it will develop better and healthier after a virtuous circle. Due to the city's policy, the funds and policies will strive to promote the real estate industry to achieve a virtuous circle and further support the stable economic development. "

Reporter's note: you still need to be cautious when buying a house.

The property market is silent, and the intensity of regulation is not diminished. Urban managers put forward different coping strategies.

According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, in the past month, more than 10 cities have issued relevant housing subsidy policies. From the specific measures, it mainly focuses on deed tax reduction, cash subsidies, and priority purchase in the name of talents or two children.

Although the encouragement policy is a real subsidy, from the perspective of these cities that provide housing subsidies, they are mainly third-and fourth-tier cities. Behind this is the continuous decline of market transaction data and the widespread pressure of de-melting.

For property buyers, if there is demand for home ownership in these third-and fourth-tier cities, they can really enjoy different degrees of preferential treatment and tax relief after the introduction of the policy. If there is no such demand in the short term, it is still necessary to buy carefully, and we must comprehensively consider market liquidity and future urban development potential.