The gap between South Korea and North Korea

After the war, the economic development of North Korea experienced a development process of prosperity first and then decline. Before 1980s, the economic development level of North Korea was no less than that of China, Viet Nam and other Asian socialist countries, and even not less than that of South Korea. 1960, South Korea's GDP and per capita GDP were only 40% and 55% of North Korea's. 1975, South Korea's GDP and per capita GDP were 90% and 84% of North Korea's, respectively. It was not until 1980 that South Korea just caught up with North Korea. South Korea's GDP and per capita GDP are $60.3 billion and 1.589 respectively, while North Korea's two figures are $4/kloc-0 and 1 respectively. Since then, South Korea has developed rapidly, leaving North Korea far behind. After the 1990s, North Korea's economic development went from bad to worse. From 1990 to 1998, it has been negative for nine consecutive years. They are -3.7, -5.2, -7.6, -4.3,-1.7, -4.5, -3.0, -6.8,-1. It was not until 1999 that the positive growth of 6.2 began to appear.

After the 1990s, with the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, North Korea's trade environment deteriorated day by day, foreign exchange reserves became less and less, and imports of raw materials, fuels and crude oil plummeted, which led to a sharp decline in metallurgical, coal and electric power production and a serious decline in the whole industrial production. From 1990 to 1998, the coal output decreased from 33150,000 tons to186,000 tons; The power generation is reduced from 22.7 billion kilowatts to1700 million kilowatts; Steel production decreased from 3.36 million tons to 945,000 tons; Crude oil imports decreased from 2.52 million tons to 500,000 tons. Due to the serious shortage of raw materials, fuel and electricity, most large and medium-sized enterprises are in a state of suspension or semi-suspension, and the equipment operating rate of enterprises is only 20%. After entering 1999, North Korea's industrial production began to show signs of improvement. According to Bai Nanshun, Foreign Minister of the DPRK Cabinet, the DPRK's economy has improved in an all-round way, and the production of thousands of factories and enterprises across the country has been normalized. 1999 in the first half of the year, the total industrial output value increased by 20% compared with the same period last year. According to statistics, in 2000, North Korea's power production increased by 140%, coal production increased by 1 13%, and more than 2,500 factories and enterprises exceeded the production plan for the first half of the year.

In 1960s, North Korea made proud achievements in grain production. North Korea produced 5 million tons of grain in 1964. At that time, the population was only120,000, which not only made people well off, but also had surplus grain for export, and was called "economic miracle" by international public opinion. In the middle and late 1970s, the annual grain output of North Korea exceeded 7 million tons, and in the first half of 1980s it exceeded 8 million tons, even reaching1984+00 million tons. However, from the 1990s to 2000, North Korea's self-produced grain averaged around 4 million tons per year. In 2000, the total grain output of North Korea was about 3.59 million tons, which was about 65.438+0.999 (4.22 million tons), a decrease of 65.438+05%. Among them, the output of rice decreased from 6.5438+0.42 million tons in 2000 to 6.5438+0.63 million tons, that of corn decreased from 6.5438+0.92 million tons to 6.5438+0.44 million tons, that of soybean decreased from 6.5438+0.3 million tons to 6.5438+0.2 million tons, and that of sweet potato alone decreased from 3.6438+0.2 million tons. At present, the total population of North Korea is about 24 million. According to the average grain consumption of 460 grams per person per day, the minimum grain demand in North Korea should be around 4 million tons per year. North Korea's annual normal grain demand is about 7.46 million tons, including 4.8 million tons of rations, 6.5438+0.2 million tons of industrial grain and 6.5438+0.4 million tons of feed. It can be seen that North Korea lacks about 2.5-3 million tons of grain every year. Since 199 1, it has imported about 8 million-1.6 million tons of grain every year.

Since the 1990s, the international economic environment has changed greatly at any time, and the foreign trade of North Korea has been greatly impacted. The Soviet Union has always been North Korea's largest trading partner. From 65438 to 0990, the trade volume between the DPRK and the Soviet Union was US$ 2.56 billion, accounting for 54.2% of the total trade volume of the DPRK. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the trade volume between the DPRK and Russia in 199 1 year dropped sharply to US$ 470 million, a decrease of more than 80% over the previous year. Since then, the trade volume has decreased year by year. In the afternoon of 1995, the trade volume between the DPRK and Russia was only $230 million, and its proportion in the total trade volume of the DPRK dropped to 1 1%. In the past five years, the scale of trade between the DPRK and Russia has shrunk by more than 50%, which has led to a serious decline in North Korea's foreign trade, a deterioration in terms of trade, and a sharp decline in import and export trade. At 199 1, the total trade volume dropped from $4.78 billion at 1990 to $2.72 billion, to $2.66 billion at 1993, and to $2.64 billion at/kloc. 1998 North Korea's foreign trade volume was144.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 33.7%, of which the import volume was 880 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%; The export value was US$ 559 million, down 38.2% year-on-year. This is the first time since the 1990s that North Korea's trade volume has fallen below $6543.8+$500 million. 1999 is14.79 million USD. It rebounded slightly in 2000 (US$ 654.38+97 million) and increased by 805.438+0 in the first half of 2006. Among them, the export of steel products to China increased by 24 1%, and the import of fossil fuels and grain from China increased by 1 12% and 89% respectively.

Since 2000, North Korea has shifted the focus of its strategy of strengthening the country to economic construction. However, due to the current situation of no war and no peace on the peninsula, it is impossible for North Korea to devote all its energy to economic construction. In the future, the heavy burden of military expenditure will continue to drag down the development of North Korea's national economy, and North Korea can only continue to adopt the policy of "building the army simultaneously". Since the 1960s, North Korea has maintained a high investment in heavy industry directly related to military industry, resulting in a serious imbalance in economic structure, while military production has developed rapidly, consuming huge national wealth, which directly excludes not only agriculture and light industry, but also the production of civilian means of production. At present, North Korea has a total population of more than 23 million, with 6.5438+0.55 million active regular troops, 6.5438+0.89 million paramilitary troops and 4.7 million reserves. Its army ranks fifth in the world. According to foreign reports, in recent years, North Korea's annual military expenditure accounts for about 20-25% of its GNP, and 1994' s military expenditure is $5.66 billion, accounting for 26.7% of GNP. This huge military expenditure cannot but seriously hinder and delay the normal process of North Korea's modernization.

The drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union have caused North Korea to lose the strategic material sources and major commodity export markets that it had previously maintained in cooperation with these countries. After these countries stopped barter trade with North Korea, North Korea did not have enough foreign exchange to continue importing strategic materials such as oil, cotton and coke. And these countries open their markets to western countries, which makes many North Korean goods lose their competitiveness. The economic blockade and sanctions imposed by the United States on North Korea have further narrowed North Korea's international economic space. After the Korean War broke out, the United States imposed a comprehensive economic blockade and sanctions on North Korea. After the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, under the pressure of the United States demanding to stop trade with North Korea, or western countries not providing loans, countries in Eastern Europe and other countries stopped normal trade with North Korea, resulting in a situation where North Korea's competitive goods could not be exported. From 1995 to 1997, serious natural disasters such as floods and droughts occurred year after year, which dealt a serious blow to North Korea's industrial and agricultural production. The shortage of energy and raw materials and the paralysis of industrial production make it difficult for North Korea not only to effectively resist natural disasters, but also to cut down forests as industrial and civil energy, thus causing a vicious circle of large-scale soil erosion and frequent natural disasters. The nuclear confrontation with the United States has made security the most urgent issue, which has made it impossible for North Korea to adjust its economic structure in time according to the changes in the international situation. As a result, economic difficulties have been aggravated and people's enthusiasm for labor and production has been gradually reduced.

The solution is the same as Vietnam: accelerate the pace of market economy reform and focus on economic construction as the national policy. For example, disarmament and decentralization, changing the mode of highly centralized power, gradually decentralizing economic management power, implementing the system of distribution according to work, improving the enthusiasm of national labor production, encouraging the development of individual and private economy, and expanding the role of the market in commodity circulation.

South Korea's economic development for more than half a century can be divided into three stages.

(1) Stagnant recovery stage (1945 ~ 196 1 year). After Korea got rid of Japanese colonial rule, it experienced large-scale political, social and economic turmoil. 1948 The government has made great efforts to resume production and curb inflation, and achieved certain results. However, the Korean War broke out in June 1950, which almost destroyed its production facilities. 1953 after the armistice, with the economic assistance of the United States and the United Nations, after nearly three years of recovery, the reconstruction work was basically completed on 1956, and hyperinflation was controlled. Although it is generally believed that the 1950s was a period of economic stagnation in South Korea, in 1954, the South Korean government implemented the rural land ownership reform of "paid expropriation" and "paid distribution", that is, the government purchased land from landowners and distributed it to farmers who actually cultivated it. Therefore, the tenant farmer system has replaced the traditional income-sharing tenant farmer system and improved the productivity of the agricultural sector. In fact, several important policy objectives implemented by the government during this period became the basis for the rapid economic growth in the 1960 s. From 1953 to 1962, the Korean economy grew at an average annual rate of 3.7%, and the per capita GNP increased at an average annual rate of 0.7%.

(2) Rapid growth stage (1962 ~ 1992). 196 1 In May, after the military coup in park chung-hee came to power, it began to promote the planned development of the Korean economy with the strategy of government-led, export-oriented and unbalanced development. Since 1962, six five-year economic development plans have been implemented continuously.

This stage is subdivided into three development periods. The 1960s was the formative period of export-oriented economy. During the First Five-Year Plan period, as one of the steps to revitalize exports, introduce foreign capital and introduce technology, the diplomatic relations between Korea and Japan were normalized from 65438 to 0965. In the 1960s, the growth rates of South Korea's gross national product and gross domestic product both reached 7.6%. From 1962 to 1970, the gross national product increased from $2.3 billion to $8 1 billion, an increase of 2.5 times, and the per capita gross national product increased from $87 to $252. In 197 1 year when the second five-year plan ended, the export volume increased from 1962 USD to10.68 million USD.

The 1970s was a period when South Korea implemented the third and fourth five-year economic development plans, continued to promote self-reliant economic construction, and solved the unbalanced development. It was also a period of heavy chemical industry development. During this period, in view of the changes in the domestic and international economic situation in South Korea, the goals of "balanced development in all regions", "epoch-making export expansion" and "heavy chemical industry construction" were put forward, which improved the imbalance of development between regions and industries. In order to continue to expand exports, 1973 has formulated a development plan for heavy chemical industry, focusing on shipbuilding, automobiles, steel, petrochemicals and non-ferrous metals, and investing heavily in heavy chemical industry. The average annual growth rate of GNP in this period was 1 1.2%, which set a record for the economic growth rate of developing countries in this period. At the same time, the industrial structure has taken a big step towards industrialization. In the gross national product of 1976, the proportion of the secondary industry is 3 1%, which is 24.8% higher than that of the primary industry. During the fourth five-year plan period (1977 ~ 198 1 year), the average annual growth rate of GNP was only 5.8%. There are many reasons for this. 1979 The second oil crisis, the assassination of President park chung-hee, 1980 Gwangju incident, and the drastic reduction of grain production made the investment in heavy chemical industry out of control and the national economy unbalanced. Nevertheless, it should be said that the Korean economy maintained rapid growth throughout the1970s. The government has made major adjustments to the industrial structure, and the heavy chemical industry has made rapid progress. Agricultural production and rural landscape have undergone tremendous changes under the impetus of the "New Village Movement". However, due to the mistakes of the authorities in macro-control, there have been problems such as excessive industrial investment and low operating rate of industrial equipment. From 197 1 to 1979, the gross national product increased from $9.5 billion to $6 14 billion, an increase of 5.5 times; The per capita GNP increased from $288 to $65,438+0.662; Exports soared from $654.38+006.8 billion to $654.38+05.06 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 39.7%.

In the 1980s, the Korean government put forward the policy of "stability, efficiency and balance" in view of the changes in the international economic environment and the new situation of domestic economic fluctuations, reformed the national economy and sought development through economic policy and structural adjustment. During the fifth five-year plan (1982 ~ 1986) and the sixth five-year plan (1987 ~ 199 1), the average growth rate of GDP was 9.2% and 9.3% respectively. In the first half of 1980s, the growth rate of South Korea's exports exceeded the growth rate of imports, and the trade deficit gradually decreased, and finally there was a surplus at 1986. From 1984 to 1985, South Korea had a trade friction with developed countries in the export market, which led to a slowdown in export growth. However, after 1986, it entered the so-called "three lows" period of low exchange rate, low oil price and low international interest rate, and greatly increased its exports for several years (1986 increased 14%, 1987 increased by 36%, 1988 increased by 20%.

(3) Adjust the stage of reform and development (1993 July to present). From 65438 to 0992, the seventh five-year economic development plan was implemented. However, Jin Yongsan, the first literati elected president in Korean history, was elected in February 1992. 1993 took office in February, and put forward the "five-year plan for new economy (1993 ~ 1998)". In this plan, administrative reform, industrial structure and financial system reform are put forward. 1992 establishing diplomatic relations with China. 1994 The real GDP increased by 8.6%, which was due to the strong price competitiveness of South Korea, the substantial increase in exports to Japan and the increase in equipment investment. This good momentum was also maintained in 1995, with the growth even exceeding 1994, reaching 8.9%, and the per capita GDP exceeded the 1 10,000 USD mark (10037). During the period of 1996, due to the appreciation of the yen, South Korea's export and equipment investment decreased, and the economic growth rate dropped to 7. 1%. However, in this year, South Korea became a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which indicated that South Korea basically got rid of its status as a developing country and entered the ranks of developed countries. However, from1June 1997 to1October 10, the value of Korean goods plummeted and was involved in the whirlpool of the Asian financial crisis. 1997 1 1 At the end of the year, Korea's available foreign exchange reserves fell to $7.3 billion, and it was unable to pay its foreign debts. The South Korean government had to apply for financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on June 5438+065438+1 October 2 1, and signed a financial assistance agreement with the IMF on February1. After the implementation of the $55 billion emergency fund rescue plan, the unstable foreign exchange situation began to stabilize after the Korean government signed an agreement with foreign bond organizations on June 5438+0 998+0 to convert short-term foreign debts into medium-and long-term foreign debts. Taking the IMF's financial assistance as an opportunity, South Korea got rid of the national crisis. The Korean economy, which experienced the baptism of the financial crisis, experienced various adjustments and reforms at the end of the 1990s. Since the beginning of 2 1 century, South Korea's economy, which is in the process of adjustment and reform, showed strong growth in 2000, with an average annual GDP growth of 8.5%, and in 2006, 5438+0 showed a significant decline, with an increase of 3.8%. In 2002, the newly elected President Roh Moo-hyun put forward four major economic policies. In 2002, the average annual economic growth rate was 7.0%. In 2003, the growth rate was only 3. 1%, the GDP was $601200 million, and the per capita 12646 dollars.

Looking at the development of South Korea's economy, "according to H.B.Chenery's research, the main transition growth period of South Korea's economy is 1963 ~ 1983. 1963 with the formulation and implementation of the first five-year economic plan, industrialization officially began. From 65438 to 0970, South Korea became a newly industrialized country. 1983, South Korea experienced the second energy crisis in 1979. 1980 economic recovery after negative growth, promoting self-discipline and opening up on the basis of economic stability. " After experiencing the most painful setback in the history of economic development caused by the 1997 financial crisis, the Korean economy is undergoing comprehensive reform and has achieved initial results.

South Korea's Strategies for Promoting Economic Development in Different Historical Periods and Its Evaluation

Through the track of South Korea's economic development, we can find the reasons for its rapid economic growth. From the macro perspective of world economic development, South Korea is in a favorable position that the post-developed countries can use the technological innovation achievements of more developed countries to "concentrate" the industrialization process; Beyond the traditional trade theory, that is, exporting countries need to fully collect consumer preferences in the domestic market before expanding into foreign markets; In addition, the rapid development of post-war resource-saving technologies in resource-poor countries such as South Korea has greatly eased the constraints of resource shortage on their economic development. Adam Smith's trade theory, that is, "trade between rich and poor countries will benefit both sides without using force, and the latter will benefit more than the former", has been partially verified again. As far as Korea itself is concerned, the following economic growth strategies implemented by the government are important factors for its rapid economic growth.

(A) the government-led economic development strategy. The so-called government-led means that the government's "positioning" and "guidance" play a role in economic operation and development. South Korea's government-led economic development strategy can be simply summarized as: the government plans, guides, manages and regulates the economy. Its main means are: first, macro-control the direction of economic development by using economic development strategy. In the mid-1960s, the Korean government put forward an "export-oriented" economic development strategy, and the focus of economic activities shifted from the domestic market to foreign countries. After 1970s, the focus of economic development shifted from light industry to heavy chemical industry, and the economic development strategy of "heavy chemical industrialization" was put forward. After 1980s, "building a country through science and technology" was put forward. Secondly, according to the long-term goal of economic development, a five-year economic development plan has been formulated, and the combination of freedom and plan is the guiding principle of economic development. The government led the implementation of a series of economic development plans. Third, to meet the needs of economic development, formulate various economic policies, regulations and measures and implement them. Fourth, the head of the Korean government personally intervened in the economy. Because the government regards intervention in economic activities as one of its key functions, the highest level of the government directly intervenes in the economy and directly deals with important problems in economic operation.

The economic development strategy led by the Korean government is relatively effective in the early stage of its economic development. The main reason is that under the economic conditions of South Korea at that time, the government-led market economy system was aimed at the capitalist market economy with the government as the commander-in-chief of its economic activities. The main means of government leading economy are macroeconomic decision-making, planning guidance, economic leverage intervention, economic legislation and administrative means. However, this industrialization process of 100 years, which is led by the government and completed by western developed countries in 30 years, has its own disadvantages. According to the analysis of institutional economics, there is path dependence in institutional evolution. Due to the government-led enterprise system arrangement and financial support policy, enterprises are highly dependent on the government. In order to get more preferential treatment from the government, Korean large enterprise groups are competing to expand recklessly and take the road of scale expansion. Facing the increasingly complex international economic environment, large enterprise groups failed to adjust the economic structure, improve economic efficiency and carry out technological innovation in time; The high debt, unreasonable financial structure and institutional defects of enterprise groups eventually make enterprise management out of control. In the financial crisis of 1997, it is not difficult to understand that large enterprise groups have closed down. Another disadvantage of Korean government-led economic development is obvious in the financial system. In developed countries with market economy, the financial system is the financial market. Allocate financial resources to relevant departments according to market signals to promote the normal development of social production. However, in South Korea, due to the characteristics of its economic development, the function of the financial industry is only to exercise government instructions and government intervention in the economy. The government decides interest rates, deposits and loans, investments, etc. , making financial institutions lose the motivation to innovate and improve efficiency, and a large number of bad debts become their heavy burden. With the expansion of economic scale, financial distortion and lag have become a serious obstacle to economic development. It was also the financial crisis of 1997, which showed all its disadvantages to the Chinese people, so that the reform and adjustment that began in the early 1990 s failed to make up its mind and had to be on the right track. Therefore, the government turned to reduce intervention, establish a free and fair market order and create a stable market environment. The transformation of the government's role from the dominant economy to the key planned economy has made Samsung Electronics and other large enterprise groups stand out and become world-famous multinational companies. The four major economic policies put forward by South Korea's current President Roh Moo-hyun at the beginning of his administration are not empty words. First of all, it proposes to establish a free and fair social order, including building an environment that is easy to start a business, establishing a transparent and fair competition mechanism, building an advanced financial infrastructure system and carrying out fiscal and taxation reforms. In the aspect of building an economic center country in Northeast Asia, it is proposed to build a business center with logistics center base and international finance as its wings and around information high-tech industries from the perspective of Northeast Asia era. There are specific contents and implementation plans for building a society centered on science and technology and a society facing a broad future. From this, we can easily see that the economic development strategy led by the Korean government has basically completed its mission and become a part of its history.

(2) Export-oriented economic development strategy. In the early 1960s, South Korea's economic development faced two choices. First, we will continue to develop an inward-looking economy with import substitution industries as the mainstay, establish an independent and complete national economic system, and try not to import or import less products produced by society and needed by the people. Second, face the world market, actively participate in the international division of labor, develop an export-oriented economy centered on export industries, and promote the development of the national economy through extensive international economic and technological exchanges. Choosing the latter enabled Korea to give full play to the advantages of abundant surplus labor resources at that time in international economic and trade activities, effectively made up for the disadvantages of lack of resources, narrow domestic market and insufficient capital accumulation, and opened up a broad space for South Korea's economic development.

South Korea's export-oriented economic development strategy is relatively successful. This success stems from its correct policies and measures. To sum up, South Korea's export-oriented economic development strategy has the following characteristics. First of all, it takes comparative advantage as the starting point. In view of the lack of raw materials, insufficient funds but sufficient labor, South Korea decided to develop labor-intensive processing and export industries first. Second, timely structural adjustment. The key to maintain the sustainable development of exports is to adjust the product structure in time. Third, implement preferential policies to support export development. Although these preferential policies, such as direct subsidies, have been decreasing with the increase of external pressure, they have played an important role in the early development of export enterprises.

(3) unbalanced growth strategy. In the choice of growth mode, South Korea is theoretically influenced by the economist A.D.Hirschmann's "unbalanced development theory", and thinks that it can sacrifice some industries and industrial sectors in a short time, concentrate on giving priority to the development of key industries, and accumulate funds through the development of key industries, thus driving the modernization of the entire national economy [? 7? 2]。 With limited accumulation of financial resources, material resources and technology, it is impossible to achieve balanced development of all sectors of the national economy at the same time. Therefore, we should choose "inclined" key investment, "seek balance in imbalance" and adopt "industry before agriculture", "export before domestic demand", "light before heavy", "big before small" and "leading industries and strategic industries before general industries".

Different people have different views on this unbalanced growth strategy pursued by South Korea. During the first and second five-year plans from 1962 to 197 1, South Korea focused on developing the textile industry with less investment and quick results, and increased export to earn foreign exchange, thus increasing investment in basic industrial equipment and expanding the savings of production capacity funds, and achieved remarkable results. However, since the early 1970s, due to the rapid shift of emphasis to heavy chemical industry, heavy chemical industry has experienced repeated and excessive investment, which has reduced economic benefits. Moreover, the imbalance between efficiency and fairness, economic growth at the same time, repeated labor disputes and other imperfect phenomena. But in essence, it should be said that unbalanced growth is actually a staggered balanced growth.

(4) Industrial policies and international development strategies in harmony with international economic changes. According to its own economic foundation, development level, especially its comparative advantage in international division of labor, South Korea timely captures and actively uses the favorable opportunities of international industrial structure changes in various periods to adjust its industrial structure with coordinated industrial policies. Since 1980s, South Korea has been pursuing internationalization, trying to push enterprises to the international market in an all-round way and accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure according to the requirements of international market competition. After the Cold War, with more and more countries attaching importance to economic development, South Korea has put more emphasis on economic internationalization and globalization, which is also in line with the development trend of world economic integration and regionalization.

(5) High-tech and human resources development strategy. The sustainable development of a country's economy is inseparable from the support of high technology and its human resources elements. South Korea has always attached importance to education and talent cultivation; At the same time, increase investment in scientific and technological development. This strategy has been generally endorsed by the industry, recognizing that the rise and fall of enterprises depends largely on the quality of employees. Most large enterprises in Korea have established amateur schools, staff training institutes, human resources development institutes and other staff training institutions. Through education and training, improve the professional quality of employees and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. The economic policy program of "building a technology-centered society" put forward by the current President Roh Moo-hyun embodies South Korea's ambition to build a high-tech country in the increasingly globalized and integrated economic development.