National new energy vehicle sales in 2021 will increase by 169.1% year-on-year

On January 11, 2022, the Passenger Car Association released new energy passenger vehicle sales data for 2021. According to statistics, the total domestic new energy vehicle wholesale volume from January to December reached 3.312 million units, a year-on-year increase 181.0%; total retail sales were 2.989 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. In sharp contrast to the "double-digit" growth of the new energy vehicle market, the total wholesale volume of fuel vehicles in 2021 will be 17.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; the total retail volume will be 17.16 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. It can be said that the market trends of the two are clearly differentiated. As more and more consumers begin to pay attention to and choose new energy models, the pace of the domestic passenger car market's transformation to "electrification" in 2022 will inevitably become faster and faster.

Judging from sales data, the domestic new energy passenger vehicle market has shown a booming scene in the past. However, behind the boom in supply and demand, the "price increase" of new energy vehicles has quietly struck.

Recently, some media reporters discovered during visits that there are many new energy models including Tesla, Xpeng Motors, GAC AION S Plus, Volkswagen’s ID.6 CROZZ and ID.4 CROZZ. All have announced price increases, with the Chinese-made Model 3 and Model Y seeing the largest increases, at 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively. GAC AION S Plus comes second, with a price increase of 7,000 to 14,000 yuan. Xpeng's three models have also raised prices, ranging from 4,300 to 5,900 yuan. Other electric models that have not directly increased their prices have also had relevant car purchase discounts cancelled. The fundamental reason for this wave of "collective price increases" by car companies is mainly affected by multiple factors such as the decline of policy subsidies, price increases of power batteries, and chip shortages.

Reduction of 30%, 2022 new energy subsidies enter “countdown”

On December 31, 2021, four ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "About "Notice on Fiscal Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" stipulates that starting from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standards for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% based on 2021. At the same time, the document pointed out that in order to maintain the good momentum of development of the new energy vehicle industry and comprehensively consider factors such as the development plan of the new energy vehicle industry, market sales trends, and smooth corporate transition, the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy will terminate on December 31 of the same year in 2022. This means that by the end of this year, the 12-year “marathon” of domestic new energy vehicle subsidies will officially reach the end.

In fact, any policy change will not come out of nowhere, but will be based on extensive and in-depth market research, especially the new energy automobile industry that will help my country realize its dream of becoming a powerful automobile country. It is undeniable that the rapid development of our new energy vehicles cannot be separated from the strong support of various policies, but from the current point of view, these policies have also achieved results beyond expectations. The development of new energy vehicles in my country has initially completed the transition from policy-led to market-led. , purchasing new energy vehicles has gradually become a trend in the consumer market, and "subsidy" is no longer the focus of consumers' choice of new energy vehicles. It is foreseeable that after subsidies are completely withdrawn in the future, the overall market prospects for new energy vehicles will remain optimistic, and market share will grow steadily and in an orderly manner.

The chip shortage crisis continues, causing the supply of new energy vehicles to exceed demand

Looking back on 2021, the "chip shortage" is a common challenge faced by the global auto market and all auto companies. According to AFS Authoritative data shows that as of December 5, 2021, the cumulative production reduction in the Chinese automobile market has reached 1.982 million vehicles due to the chip shortage, and the global automobile market has cumulatively reduced production by 10.122 million vehicles.

As we all know, affected by the epidemic last year, the output of global chip suppliers was sluggish, and the strong demand from OEMs led to an imbalance in market supply and demand. Ultimately, many car companies fell into the embarrassing situation of "making a meal without rice" and "chip shortage" "It has even become a common problem among the top executives of major car companies, so there has also been a phenomenon of increasing prices to buy chips. At the same time, the second-hand car market, which was ignited by the problem of core shortage, also became a unique scene in the car market last year.

Even now, the global auto market has not gotten rid of the negative impact of the chip shortage. Perhaps the "darkest moment" has passed, but the chip tension will continue for a long time.

In addition, compared with the past, the number of chips used in today's cars, especially new energy vehicles, has doubled, which has also increased the manufacturing cost of cars. Therefore, even if the normal supply of chips can be restored, the price increase of new energy vehicles is still a reasonable development trend.

Rising raw material prices have driven up the cost of power batteries

In addition to chip shortages, insufficient production capacity and rising prices in the field of power battery raw materials are also an important factor leading to higher terminal selling prices of new energy vehicles. . Taking lithium carbonate, the main material in power batteries, as an example, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate at the beginning of 2021 was only 50,000 yuan/ton, but recently it has risen to 290,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 480% in just one year; from 2020 From April 2020 to October 2021, the price of cobalt also rose from less than 240,000 yuan/ton to 380,000 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 60%. In addition, according to public data, compared with Q3 2020, battery-related raw materials such as separators, positive and negative electrode materials, and electrolytes are available at varying rates, with the highest increase exceeding 170%.

Because of the increase in raw material prices, the cost of power batteries has subsequently increased. Therefore, in the second half of 2021, BYD announced a 20% price increase for battery products. Tianneng Lithium Battery, Guoxuan High-tech, and Penghui Energy Other companies have also issued notices to adjust the prices of batteries or battery raw materials. However, the higher costs paid by car companies in the manufacturing process are ultimately reflected in the product selling price to a greater or lesser extent. For example, on January 22, BYD officially issued a statement on model price adjustments: Due to the sharp increase in raw material prices and the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, BYD Auto will adjust the official guidance prices of new energy models related to Dynasty and Haiyang. , the increase ranges from 1,000 to 7,000 yuan, and the price adjustment will officially take effect on February 1. Based on the current market performance, many professional institutions have stated that it is expected that the continued growth in domestic power battery product prices in 2022 will drive a new round of increase in vehicle terminal prices. ?

Looking at comprehensive policies, hardware, and raw materials from multiple angles, it is more appropriate to say that this wave of price increases is "forced by the situation" rather than being intentional by new energy vehicle companies. . It can be foreseen that it is an inevitable trend for various new energy vehicles to start the "price increase mode" in 2022. Judging from the current information disclosed by major domestic car companies, at least more than a dozen new pure electric cars such as the SAIC Roewe Collavi and the Xpeng G9 will be launched this year. Unless there are any accidents, these new cars will have varying degrees of price increases.

Today, the stage of "trading time for space" in China's new energy passenger vehicle market has passed. Driven by the concept of green consumption and the "double carbon" goal, new energy vehicles have Market share will inevitably increase steadily. At the same time, as the subsidy dividend enters the "countdown", the fierce market competition environment will also stimulate OEMs to invest more in technology and product development to lead the industry to complete the transition from the pursuit of "quantity" to the pursuit of "quality". ” transitional transformation.