Big data promotes emergency management to become emergency "intelligence"

Big data promotes emergency management to become emergency "intelligence"

Big data is a diverse collection of data. In addition to structured data such as census data, survey data, experimental data and recorded data, it also includes unstructured data such as online clicks, search information, pictures, videos and sensors, among which unstructured data accounts for 95%, which is a resource that traditional databases cannot analyze and utilize. It also meets the real-time needs of users by quickly creating, processing and analyzing data. Big data is committed to mining and combing seemingly worthless fragmented information through machine learning, making it useful. These characteristics of big data bring opportunities for emergency management mode innovation and capacity improvement.

New opportunities

In the early stage, big data assisted forecasting and improved monitoring and early warning capabilities. The key of big data is the change of thinking from causality to correlation, and the core of big data is prediction based on correlation analysis. Crisis prediction needs to monitor risk points and crisis sources, but it is becoming more and more uncontrollable. Apart from natural disasters, China's social transformation has also caused frequent social crises. First, the process of farmers' citizenization has aggravated the problem of floating population and social contradictions; Second, the information process from citizens to netizens has increased the crisis of network public opinion and network information security; Thirdly, the process of internationalization from a country to the citizens of the world makes it more difficult to manage cultural conflicts, special people and international health events. The emergency management situation is complex and changeable, and the traditional means such as empirical decision-making, power command and information suppression can no longer meet the requirements. The collection, analysis and processing of these multi-source heterogeneous data by big data can fill the shortage of emergency management and early warning capabilities. It can screen out the key information clues from the massive data information, and then monitor the risk points and crisis sources.

In the medium term, big data will assist decision-making and improve emergency response capability. Simon's bounded rationality theory tells us that the degree of information mastery, cognitive level and time limit will affect the behavior of decision makers, forcing them to choose a "satisfactory" plan instead of an optimal one. Big data can not only capture multi-style data, but also obtain overall information through overall analysis rather than sample analysis. It is no longer the control of random sample size, but the statistical analysis of all data, which will inevitably make the decision more scientific. In addition, in crisis management, causal logic is not easy to find in a short time. We can find out the key elements of crisis events through the correlation of big data, and then intervene and control these elements to control the crisis events. In fact, big data processing should have the concept of "efficiency rather than absolute accuracy", so that emergency decision information can be obtained faster and emergency treatment can be carried out faster.

In the post-event stage, big data assisted fundraising and improved the ability of rescue and reconstruction. In the process of post-disaster rescue, there is an urgent need for a scheme with the best resource allocation, the fastest resource integration and stronger self-organization ability. Such as urban traffic accidents, mass epidemic outbreaks, urban natural floods and heavy rains caused by ice and snow. Big data can complete the design of rescue routes, the arrangement of rescuers and the deployment of relief materials through the emergency management platform, thus minimizing the losses after the crisis. In addition, big data technology can process personalized data, track the personalized needs of crisis stakeholders, and push more targeted assistance and services.

In short, big data drives passive emergency management into active emergency "intelligence". Driven by big data, emergency management is changing to emergency management and emergency "intelligence". Emergency management is a unitary thinking mode centered on the government, which emphasizes the prevention and control of the government in dealing with public crises; Emergency management is a multi-subject thinking mode led by the government, such as the government and social stakeholders, emphasizing collaborative management; The theory of emergency "intelligence" is a mode of thinking in which all elements such as organization, personnel, information and resources are governed together, which constitutes a panoramic knowledge system of technology and organizational system and emphasizes overall governance.

New challenges

Big data brings many opportunities to emergency management reform, but also challenges the current emergency management model, which requires us to think calmly in the big data boom.

Data scientists and data management talents are scarce. According to IDC's analysis, "by 2020, 22% of the global data will come from China". The rapid expansion of data volume not only provides knowledge wealth, but also tests data processing ability. In the era of big data, arguments based on traditional experience and knowledge reasoning will be challenged by technology, so the status of urban emergency management experts will be threatened and replaced by data scientists. James gray believes that scientific research is entering the fourth paradigm "data science", and the top three scientific research fields are experimental science, theoretical science and computational science. When China has not established a complete information technology talent training system, the lack of big data-related talents will become a key contradiction.

The traditional emergency management system is facing difficulties. China's current emergency management system attaches importance to the construction of "one case, three systems". The Emergency Response Law promulgated in 2007 established the emergency management system of "unified leadership, comprehensive coordination, classified management, graded responsibility and territorial management". This system emphasizes the hierarchical chain of command, and the party and government leaders play the role of power. While emphasizing power means, the role of data tools is ignored, and there is a serious asymmetry between them. The emergency management situation requires comprehensive data collection, rapid data transmission, accurate data analysis and data reuse, but these aspects are seriously inadequate in China's current emergency management system. In addition to technical factors, there are many obstacles in the emergency management system.

The government's crisis public relations ability is challenged. In the process of emergency management, the government should use public relations to deal with the crisis, such as controlling the situation, guiding public opinion, maintaining relations and reshaping the image. Facing the rapid spread of online media, it will be more difficult to deal with the crisis of online public opinion by relying on the traditional "cybernetics" and "blocking theory". We should seek truth from facts and communicate on an equal footing. If the crisis public relations is improper, it may lead to a more serious public relations crisis.

New response

To cope with the above challenges, it is necessary to use the development and application of big data to drive deep-seated changes in emergency management. The following work should be done well.

In the cooperation between technology and people, we should pay more attention to people's status. Big data can only provide relevance, while people should provide the necessary causal pursuit. Big data analysis is instrumental rationality, and people embody value rationality, which points out the direction for data analysis. In addition, big data provides a reference answer, not a final answer. If you rely too much on big data technology to make decisions, there will be a risk of decision failure, so you should avoid the state of technological determinism. Only the close cooperation between people and technology can reflect the scientificity and rationality of emergency management.

Data processing is carried out in increments, and data is opened in stock. Although we are faced with the pressure of massive data processing, there are still problems of insufficient digitalization of information, such as some paper documents not forming electronic documents. Therefore, it is necessary to complete the work of information digitization, data structuring and structure standardization as much as possible. In addition, data is more valuable only if it flows, so the state should introduce a legal system for data opening as soon as possible to promote the opening of non-confidential data. Pay attention to the cooperation of emergency departments and the sharing and reuse of emergency data to avoid the recurrence of the same crisis.

Establish big data management institutions and cultivate big data management talents. Establish a big data management organization with sufficient authority to break the bureaucratic obstruction to coordinate the integration and sharing of data resources between different departments. In addition, in the construction of CIO (CEO) system, the position of big data manager should be appropriately increased and its training should be done well. Of course, we should also be alert to the situation that technocrats use big data management for their own personal gain.

Attach importance to the development and expansion of e-government functions. E-government is entering the third development stage-smart government. The application of automation technology in "automated government affairs" focuses on assisting grass-roots staff to handle daily service affairs; The application of internet technology in "network government affairs" focuses on assisting middle-level managers to deal with communication and coordination affairs; The application of big data technology in "smart government affairs" focuses on assisting senior leaders to handle decision-making and control affairs. E-government in the era of big data should not only undertake the functions of information disclosure, online service and public participation of government websites, but also actively use big data technology to open up a platform for emergency management, thus providing functions such as data analysis, plan response, resource allocation and decision-making.

Attach importance to online and offline interaction and collaboration. Data, information and knowledge are the means of production in the era of big data. There will also be a division between the class that owns the means of production and the class that doesn't. Because big data captures digital information, it only reflects the voices and demands of some people who own the means of production. The demands of vulnerable groups who do not have computers or the ability to use the Internet are often ignored in the emergency management of big data. Therefore, in order to make emergency management more effective, we should attach importance to online and offline interaction and cooperation.