When will there be a big earthquake in Quanzhou, Fujian?

The following is news from the Seismological Bureau of Fujian Province:

Don't believe earthquake rumors, there won't be a big earthquake in Fujian.

Recently, it was widely rumored on the Internet that Mr. Li Siguang predicted that there would be a major earthquake in Fujian, which made people panic. I am an old seismologist, and I have studied this problem carefully. First, Mr. Li Siguang didn't make such a prediction, and his books and speeches didn't involve this issue. This has been seriously verified and refuted in the rumors of three major earthquakes in our province: 1980, 1987 and 1995. Second, after years of exploration and research, several groups of large-scale structural fault zones on the land in our province have not found any activity since the late Pleistocene and do not have the structural conditions for a major earthquake. Third, our province has a historical earthquake of more than 1000 years, and the largest earthquake on land is only 6.2. Therefore, there is no scientific basis for the rumor that there will be a major earthquake in our province in the near future.

Researcher, Seismological Bureau of Fujian Province

In 2008,

Characteristics and Identification of Earthquake Rumors

There must be rumors after the earthquake. According to the accumulated experience of Tangshan earthquake, Tangshan earthquake experts summarized the characteristics of earthquake rumors and put forward some suggestions on how to identify earthquake rumors.

Earthquake rumors generally have two characteristics: one is specious earthquake anomalies. Some accidental events that are not necessarily earthquakes, such as meteorological phenomena, animal and plant anomalies, groundwater anomalies, etc., are mistaken for anomalies before earthquakes. Second, the accuracy beyond the current scientific level. Some rumors can accurately predict the earthquake events on a certain day, even to a few minutes, the magnitude is several times, and the epicenter of the earthquake is a village in a township. It is beyond the height that can be achieved by the existing earthquake prediction level.

Experts said that to rationally judge and identify all kinds of earthquake rumors, we should ask more questions, think more and verify more. Q: First, where did the news come from? According to the Administrative Measures for Earthquake Prediction, under normal circumstances, only provincial governments have the right to release earthquake predictions to the society, and no other unit or individual may release earthquake predictions to the outside world. Therefore, as long as the earthquake prediction is not publicly released by the government, no matter what kind of authority it is released, don't believe it. Two thoughts: due to the limitation of scientific level of earthquake prediction, earthquake prediction cannot be very accurate. Therefore, any earthquake prediction that accurately describes the time, place and magnitude of an earthquake is a rumor. Verification: When you hear the news of an earthquake, you can check with the government and the earthquake department if you are in doubt and it is difficult to judge whether it is true or not.

Reprint "Xinhuanet"