What is the development trend of commercial real estate in China in 2020? Is it suitable for investment?

According to the survey data of retail rent samples of major commercial streets and typical shopping centers in key cities in China by the Retail Rent Index of China Real Estate Index System, in the first half of 2020, the retail rent level of major commercial streets and key business districts (shopping centers) in China declined as a whole.

Under the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, residents' production and life are limited, consumption activities are reduced, and the commercial real estate market is facing challenges; On the other hand, the epidemic has accelerated the change of consumption habits in the Internet era, and a new pattern of commercial real estate industry will gradually take shape. Under this background, on the basis of analyzing and summarizing the research experience over the years and the development status of the commercial real estate industry, this paper studies and compiles the commercial real estate index of China real estate index system, which mainly covers the retail rent index and the office rent index, so as to objectively reflect the commercial real estate price level and its changing trend in key cities.

According to the survey data of retail rent samples of major commercial streets and typical shopping centers in key cities in China by the Retail Rent Index of China Real Estate Index System, in the first half of 2020, the retail rent level of major commercial streets and key business districts (shopping centers) in China declined as a whole. Among them, taking 0/00 commercial street shops in national key cities/kloc as the sample object, the average rent of shops in the top 100 commercial streets (Bai Jie) is 25. 1 yuan/square meter/day, down 2.41%from the previous month; Taking 100 typical shopping malls as the sample target, the average rent of the top 100 shopping malls (100 shopping malls) is 26.8 yuan/m2/day, down 1.09% from the previous month.

During the epidemic, some owners/operators introduced a series of relief measures for merchants, such as rent-free period and deferred payment of rent. According to the survey data of shop leasing samples, nearly half of the owners in the sample commercial street give rent-free period to the merchants. In the sample business district, over 70% of the shopping centers give rent-free to merchants (note: the increase or decrease of the average rent of shops this time does not consider the impact of rent-free provided by owners/suppliers on the rent level).

Judging from the number of rising and falling businesses, among the sample commercial streets, the commercial streets with rising rents account for 12. 1%, the commercial streets with falling rents account for 83.3%, and the rents of 4.5% are the same as those of the previous period; In the sample business districts (shopping centers), the rents of business districts with rising rents accounted for 14.7%, and those with falling rents accounted for 84.2%. The rents of business districts (shopping centers) with 1. 1% were the same as the previous period.

In terms of market performance, the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide in May 2020 was 13.9 trillion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 2.7 percentage points narrower than that in April. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 1 1.5% year-on-year, 2.9 percentage points higher than that in1-April; The online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.3% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the same period last year. Under the influence of the epidemic situation in COVID-19, online shopping has become an important way for residents to consume, and the proportion of online retail sales of physical goods has continued to increase, and online consumption still has a squeezing effect on entity management. On the whole, affected by the epidemic, China's economy and consumption have been greatly impacted, and it will take time for the demand for commercial leasing to recover.

1, change of Bai Jie store rent index.

(1) Changes in store rents in Bai Jie

According to the survey data of main commercial street shops in 15 key cities in China, the rent index of the top 100 commercial streets (100 streets) is formed with the commercial street shops in key cities 100 as the sample object. In the first half of 2020, the average rent of shops in Bai Jie was 25. 1 yuan/square meter/day, down 2.4 1% from the previous month.

From the perspective of cities, in the first half of 2020, the commercial streets with rising rents accounted for 1 1.5%, the commercial streets with falling rents accounted for 80.8%, and the rents of 7.7% were the same as those of the previous period. Among the first-tier cities, the rents of nine commercial streets in Beijing have increased by 2 times, 5 times and 2 times, of which Nanluoguxiang has the largest decline, accounting for 3.37%; The rents of Shanghai 1 1 commercial streets all fell month-on-month, with Tianzifang having the largest decline, accounting for 5.26%. The rents of three commercial streets in Guangzhou rose for one month and fell for two months, among which Beijing Road Pedestrian Street fell by 3.67%. Rents of three commercial streets in Shenzhen all fell month-on-month, with Dongmen Pedestrian Street falling the most, reaching 5.59%.

In the first half of 2020, commercial street rents in second-tier cities increased by 12.5%, decreased by 85.0%, and remained the same as the previous period by 2.5%. Among the second-tier cities, the rents of major commercial streets in Nanjing increased from the previous month; The rents of major commercial streets in Hangzhou, Changsha and Haikou are mixed; The rents of major commercial streets in other seven cities all fell or remained flat, with Wuhan Optics Valley Pedestrian Street having the largest decline, accounting for 6.64%.

(2) Commercial streets with a large increase or decrease in rent.

In the first half of 2020, among the sample commercial streets, the rents of eight commercial streets including Nanjing Laomendong and Haikou Zhongshan Road increased month-on-month, but the increase was limited, with Nanjing Laomendong having the largest increase month-on-month, accounting for 0.78%. The rents of Zhongshan Road and Jiefang West Road Commercial Street in Haikou increased by 0.5% (inclusive) -0.7% (inclusive); The rents of five commercial streets, such as Guijie Street in Beijing and Wulin Road in Hangzhou, all increased within 0.5% month-on-month. Among the commercial streets with low rents, the rents of 10 commercial streets such as Wuhan Optics Valley Pedestrian Street and Shenzhen Dongmen Pedestrian Street have decreased relatively, and the rents of Wuhan Optics Valley Pedestrian Street have the largest decline, accounting for 6.64%. The rents of Shenzhen Dongmen Pedestrian Street and Shanghai Tianzifang Commercial Street both decreased by 5.0%-6.0% from the previous month. The rents of seven commercial streets, including Chongqing Three Gorges Square, Suzhou Shilu Pedestrian Street and Tianjin binjiang road Commercial Street, all decreased by 3.0%-5.0% from the previous month.

2. 100 changes in the rent index of shopping malls and shops

(1) 100 store rent changes

According to the sampling survey data of five typical shopping malls in national key cities/kloc-0, the rent index of 100 shopping malls is formed. In the first half of 2020, the average rent of 100 MALL shops was 26.8 yuan/m2/day, down 1.09% from the previous month.

In terms of cities, in the first half of 2020, the rents of first-tier cities 13.6% shopping districts (shopping malls) increased month-on-month, 84. 1% shopping districts (shopping malls) decreased month-on-month, and 2.3% shopping districts (shopping malls) remained unchanged from the previous period. Among the first-tier cities, the rent in Beijing 12 business district increased by 10 and decreased by 1 level, among which the rent in Chongwenmen business district decreased the most, accounting for 2.58%. The rents of 22 business districts in Shanghai increased by 19 times from the previous month, with the People's Square business district having the largest decline, accounting for 2.82%. The rents of six business districts in Guangzhou rose 4 times from the previous month, with the Beijing Road business district having the largest decline, accounting for 3.99%. The rents of four business districts in Shenzhen fell across the board, while Huaqiang business district and Futian central business district both fell by 2.29%.

In the first half of 2020, the rents of second-tier cities 15.7% business districts (shopping centers) increased month-on-month, while the rents of 84.3% business districts (shopping centers) decreased month-on-month. The rents of key business districts in seven cities including Changsha, Nanjing, Suzhou, Chongqing and Nanchang all fell month-on-month; The rents of key business districts in Chengdu, Hangzhou and other four cities are mixed. Among the second-tier cities, the rent in the Shenhua business district in Hangzhou dropped the most, accounting for 3.70%.

(2) Business districts with large rent increase or decrease.

In terms of business districts, in the first half of 2020, among the business districts with rising rents, Guangzhou Tianhe Road, Guangzhou Xiguan and other 10 business districts saw a large increase in rents, and Guangzhou Tianhe Road business district saw the highest increase of 0.6 1%. Guangzhou Xiguan business district rent also increased by 0.60% from the previous month; The rents of Chuansha and Qibao business districts in Shanghai increased by 0.5%-0.6% from the previous month. The rents of six business districts, including Qingdao Fushanhou, Haikou Binhai International Trade Center and Shanghai Zhongshan Park, all increased within 0.5% month-on-month. In the business circle where rents fell month-on-month, the rents of Beijing Road and Guangzhou Bridge in Guangzhou fell by nearly 4.0% month-on-month; The rents of three business districts, such as Hangzhou Shenhua and Nanchang Bayi, all fell by 3.0%-4.0% month-on-month; The rents of five business districts, including Qingdao Licun, Shanghai People's Square and Chongqing Three Gorges Square, all fell by 2.0%-3.0% from the previous month.

3. Research on the trend of leasing operation.

From the market performance, since 2020, affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19, online shopping has become an important way for residents to consume, and the proportion of online retail sales of physical goods has continued to increase. Online consumption has a certain impact on the operation of offline enterprises. On the one hand, the epidemic has catalyzed the continuous expansion of emerging formats and promoted the accelerated integration and development of online and offline retail commercial enterprises. On the other hand, the non-contact and self-service retail services provided by retail commercial enterprises are more favored by consumers, and the commercial value of the community has been rapidly improved. On the whole, in the first half of 2020, the economic operation has not returned to the normal level, and major economic indicators such as investment and consumption have not returned to the same period last year. In the short term, the domestic economy is still recovering, the physical business operation still faces many challenges, and the overall rent of shops is under pressure. In the future, with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, some of the previously suppressed consumer demand is expected to be gradually released, and the stable development of the consumer market will be supported.

In terms of supply, in terms of short-term supply, among the 65,438 key monitoring cities, only 14 new shopping center projects were opened in May, with a total commercial building area of about 820,000 square meters, mainly distributed in 8 cities including Chengdu, Chongqing, Qingdao and Nanchang, and/kloc in 20 19. With the continuous improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, some shopping centers that have been suspended due to the epidemic are expected to enter the market in the second half of 2020. From the perspective of long-term supply, from June to June, 2020, 15 focused on monitoring the planned construction area of urban commercial land transactions, with a year-on-year increase of 14 1%. From the perspective of cities, the planned construction area of commercial land transactions in first-tier cities increased by 100.3% year-on-year, while that in second-tier cities increased by 2.3% year-on-year. In terms of transaction ratio, the transaction area of commercial land in first-tier cities increased from 12. 1% in the same period last year to 2 1.2%, while that in second-tier cities decreased from 87.9% in the same period last year to 78.9%. On the whole, the transaction scale of commercial land market in first-tier cities increased significantly year-on-year, while that in second-tier cities was relatively stable.

On the demand side, from June, 205438 to May, 2020, affected by the epidemic, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, and it has not recovered to the pre-epidemic level. On the other hand, online cumulative consumption continued to grow year-on-year, and offline physical consumption continued to be squeezed. From June 5438 to May, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 1 1.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate expanded for three consecutive months. According to consumption types, catering revenue decreased by 36.5% year-on-year; Retail sales of commodities decreased 10.6% year-on-year. In 15 category, the retail sales of grain, oil, food, beverages, Chinese and western medicines, daily necessities and communication equipment increased by 13.4%, 8.5%, 4.9%, 2.5% and 2.3% respectively, while the retail sales of other 10 categories all decreased. Among them, gold, silver, jewelry, clothing, shoes and bags, knitted textiles decreased by more than 20% year-on-year. Generally speaking, under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the consumer market in China has been greatly impacted in a short period of time. Although the market vitality has rebounded, it will take time to restore the pre-epidemic level. In the case of slowing rental demand, store rents are still facing downward pressure in the short term.

Looking forward to the future, the epidemic prevention and control work in COVID-19 has entered a normal stage, but its impact on the economy will continue in the short term. Under the background that it will take time for the domestic economy, consumer market and physical business to recover, the rent level of shops will continue to decline in the short term. At the same time, the epidemic situation abroad is spreading and its impact on the world economy is still in the process of development and evolution; In the case of great uncertainty in external demand, the strategy of expanding domestic demand will continue to advance. With the effective control of the epidemic and the steady recovery of commerce and market, with the support of consumption promotion policy, China's economy will gradually release the potential of domestic demand, and the momentum of consumption upgrading will continue. With the continuous recovery of the vitality of the consumer market, physical commerce and merchant operations are also expected to gradually return to normal levels; It is predicted that in the future, the rents of shops in key cities in China are expected to resume stable operation.

According to the survey data of the office rent index of China Real Estate Index System on the office rent samples of major business districts in key cities in China, in the first half of 2020, the office rent level of major business districts in key cities in China decreased by 2.38% as a whole. The average rent in the second quarter was 4.8 yuan/m2/day, which was 1.54% lower than that in the first quarter. From the perspective of business circle, office rent increased by 65,438+00.0% in the second quarter, decreased by 87.5%, and remained unchanged at 2.5% from the previous period. On the whole, in the second quarter of 2020, the domestic economy gradually recovered, but the huge impact of the current overseas epidemic on the world economy continued to develop and evolve, and the external risk challenges increased significantly. Under the background of increasing pressure of domestic economic recovery and increasing uncertainty of the world economy, China's stable economic operation still faces many challenges, and the main indicators such as consumption and investment are lower than the same period last year; Affected by the fact that the domestic macro-economy is still in the downward range, the demand for office buildings in major business districts of key cities across the country declined this quarter, and rents continued to fall month on month. From the perspective of cities, office rents in first-and second-tier cities all fell from the previous month.

1, office rent change

From the perspective of cities, office rents in first-and second-tier cities have declined.

From the perspective of cities, in the second quarter of 2020, in first-tier cities, 13.9% of office rents in business districts increased month on month, while 86. 1% of office rents in business districts decreased month on month. Specifically, among the 36 major business districts in first-tier cities, office rents in five business districts, including Beijing Lizeqiao and Beijing Science and Technology Park, increased month on month; Office rents in 365 and 438+0 business districts such as Shenzhen Longgang Central City and Shenzhen Nanshan Central District decreased month on month.

In the second quarter of 2020, among the second-tier cities, 6.8% of office rents in business districts increased month-on-month, 88.6% of office rents in business districts decreased month-on-month, and 4.5% of office rents in business districts remained unchanged from the previous period. 1 1 In the 44 major business circles of the city, office rents in Hangzhou, Nanjing and Changsha are mixed. Office rents in major business districts of other cities all fell or remained flat.

2. Business districts with large rent increase or decrease.

In the second quarter of 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the office market continued to show. In the major business districts of 15 key cities monitored by the office rent index of China's real estate index system, nearly 90% of office rents in the business districts fell month-on-month; Among them, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, transportation, culture, sports and entertainment industries have been greatly affected, and the office rents in business districts where enterprises in these industries are concentrated have dropped a lot from the previous month. Among the business districts where office rents fell month-on-month, Shenzhen Longgang Central City experienced the largest month-on-month decline of 3.96%, and rents fell to 3.7 yuan/square meter day; Office rents in Shenzhen Nanshan Central District and Beijing Shangdi 13 business districts also fell by more than 3.0% month-on-month. The rents of 47 business districts such as Guangzhou Sports Center and Shanghai Wujiaochang decreased1.0%-3.0%; Office rents in nine business districts, such as Huaihai Middle Road in Shanghai and Chunxi Road in Chengdu, decreased by less than 1.0% month-on-month.

Despite the limited commercial activities during the epidemic, Internet-related service industries, medical care and big data industries continued to rise. Based on the expansion demand, the demand for office buildings in emerging business districts with better hardware facilities, perfect property management and low rent has increased. At the same time, TMT, financial industry and other industries are still the main demand of the office market, and some enterprises have expansion needs; Therefore, the rents of office buildings in business districts where enterprises in these industries are concentrated are relatively stable. Among the key cities 15 main business districts monitored by the China Real Estate Index System, the office rents of eight business districts, including Beijing Lizeqiao and Beijing Science Park, rose month on month, with the increase rates all within 1.0%.

3. Research on the trend of leasing operation.

Judging from the market performance, with the solid progress of resumption of work and production, the national economic operation showed a recovery and improvement trend in the second quarter. However, during the period of 20201-May, the main indicators such as investment, consumption, import and export still showed a downward trend year-on-year, the economic operation has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level, and the stable recovery of some industries is also facing new challenges. The demand for office rental in key cities is weak and the vacancy rate is high. Comprehensive factors led to the continued decline in office rents in the second quarter. In terms of industries, the office demand related to the Internet and medical care continues to grow against the trend, while the office demand of TMT industry and financial industry remains stable, which has a certain positive impact on the office rental market.

On the supply side, in terms of new construction, from June to May 2020, the new construction area of office buildings in 15 key cities was 9130,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the newly started area of office buildings in first-tier cities increased by 6.7% year-on-year; Second-tier cities decreased by 39.5% year on year. In terms of land supply, from June to June, 2020, the planned construction area of 15 key cities' business land transactions was 25.095 million square meters, up 14 1% year-on-year. Among them, the planned construction area of business land transactions in first-tier cities increased by100.3% year-on-year; Second-tier cities grew by 2.3% year on year. In the short term, the area of newly started office buildings in national 15 key cities decreased year-on-year. In the long run, the supply of commercial land in key cities will continue to grow steadily.

On the demand side, in the second quarter of 2020, China's national economy as a whole is in the process of recovery. From June 5438 to May 2020, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the service industry production index decreased by 7.7% year-on-year. In terms of major industries, in May, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, real estate and financial industry increased by 12.9%, 7.65, 438+0% and 5.2% respectively, with the growth rates increased by 7.7, 6.0 and 0.8 percentage points respectively compared with April. Wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering decreased by 2. 1% and 2 1.7% respectively, which were 4.5 and 12.0 percentage points lower than that in April. On the whole, TMT industry and financial industry are still the main demand in the office market this quarter.

Looking forward to the future, from the macro environment, in the second quarter of 2020, relevant policies to promote the resumption of work and production and support the prevention and control of the epidemic will be implemented in an orderly manner, and the economy will continue to show an upward trend. In terms of taxation, the state has successively introduced a number of preferential tax and fee policies to reduce the tax burden and cost pressure of enterprises and society. On May 15, the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly issued the Announcement on the Implementation Period of Tax and Fee Policies to Support Epidemic Prevention and Control and Supply Guarantee. Support epidemic prevention and control, enterprises to get rid of difficulties and return to work; On May 19, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued the Announcement on Matters Related to Deferred Payment of Income Tax in 2020 by Small-scale Low-profit Enterprises and Individual Industrial and Commercial Households, so as to alleviate the financial pressure on production and operation of small-scale low-profit enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. In terms of credit support and financial services, the policy continues to provide credit support to small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. On May 25th, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Standardizing the Charge of Credit Financing to Reduce the Comprehensive Cost of Enterprise Financing, proposing 20 measures to further standardize the charge management of all aspects of credit financing, reduce the comprehensive cost of enterprise financing, and better serve the high-quality development of the real economy. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the CBRC has continuously optimized financial services in the field of epidemic prevention and control. As of May 17, 2020, the credit support provided by banking institutions for epidemic prevention and control and helping to resume work and production has exceeded 3 1 1 trillion yuan.

In the short term, it will take time for China's economy to fully recover under the influence of the epidemic. From June 5438 to May 2020, the three major demands of consumption, investment and export still declined year-on-year; With the impact of the epidemic on the market gradually emerging, office rents will remain under pressure in the short term. However, in the long run, although China's current economic operation has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level, under the background of major strategic achievements in epidemic prevention and control, with the solid promotion of resumption of work and production and the gradual improvement of production demand, the new kinetic energy of China's economic development and transformation and upgrading will continue to grow and develop, promoting the comprehensive return of the economy to normal and supporting the stable development of the office market.

References:

Research Report on Rent Index of Commercial Real Estate in China in 2020