How did Netease's share price fall so much overnight?

Although the third quarter financial report shows that the performance of the three major portals is still rising, the share prices of the three major portals have fallen sharply. Netease, the company with the highest share price, dropped from the peak of 60 yuan to more than 40 dollars, and Ding Lei, the newly released richest man in the mainland, lost at least 300 million dollars in wealth. At the same time, the share prices of Sina and Sohu also fell to varying degrees.

Previously, there have been voices in the industry questioning that the stock prices of the three major portals are "too high". Just before the three major portals released their third-quarter financial reports, some analysts said that their report data would show the real prices of the three major portals and gain recognition from the capital market in the third quarter due to the suspension of the SMS alliance. I can't believe this is a prophecy.

The shrinking of short messages has hit stock market confidence.

Netease's third-quarter financial report said that its revenue from SMS and other e-commerce services in the third quarter was 62.7 million yuan (US$ 7.6 million), down 20.7% from the previous quarter's 7965438+ million yuan (US$ 9.6 million). In the financial report, Netease publicly explained that the revenue of SMS and other e-commerce services decreased compared with the previous quarter, mainly due to the intensified competition in the field of mobile value-added services, the interruption of cooperation between Netease and some third-party websites, and the implementation of relevant measures by the two major mobile operators in China. In this regard, Netease began to change a series of paid products to free, in order to enhance the popularity of these products and accumulate a larger user base, so as to benefit from the increasing user base when other paid schemes are launched.

But such a signal will undoubtedly greatly undermine the confidence of the capital market. After the short message products helped the portal to turn over, the short message business maintained rapid growth for a long time.

Netease, in particular, although Wang Zhidong had outlined the embryonic form of short message products, even when Netease set foot in short message business, the short messages of Sina and Sohu had begun to take shape. Moreover, some people say that Netease does short messages because it can't compete with Sina and Sohu in news or online advertisements, and it is a bit overwhelming to do short messages. But after all, Netease finally realized the real commercialization of short message products, and thus benefited the entire online community in China.

Therefore, when there is a negative growth in Netease short messages, it is impossible for the capital market not to react quickly. Lv Weigang, an Internet observer, explained that such a signal was exaggerated by Nasdaq, so investors' initial reaction would be more intense.

In other words, in the eyes of investors, the negative growth of Netease SMS products means that the operating environment of the entire portal website has changed or even deteriorated, thus dragging down the share prices of Sina and Sohu.

In addition, the reporter learned from the industry that some Wall Street analysts had visited the three major portals and other Internet companies just before the three major portals announced their third-quarter financial reports, and immediately published a report that the growth of SMS business would slow down. On the day the report was released, the share prices of the three major portals all fell slightly, indicating investors' doubts about the continuous growth of SMS. Netease's third-quarter financial report said that the decline of short message service just confirmed analysts' previous predictions, and investors who were originally skeptical would inevitably respond accordingly.

However, some insiders said that this phenomenon is only temporary. "September happens to be the introduction of two policies of China Mobile, so it will definitely have an impact on the market. However, the financial report of China Mobile's listed companies in Hong Kong shows that the growth of SMS in the third quarter still reached 62%, so there is still room for growth of SMS. Of course, how the portal gets a share from the whole plate is another problem. However, the overall operating environment of the market is still upward. "

In addition, Netease executives told the media that the newly formulated regulations to protect the rights and interests of SMS users have also brought some negative effects. SMS subscription includes games, news tips and making friends. According to the new regulations, SMS users will get a full refund if they unsubscribe within three days, which leads to a high unsubscribe rate of SMS services. "Our users are relatively young people, and obviously they will make full use of the relevant regulations."

Another profit card of Netease

Although Netease was frustrated in short message service, the profit contributed by online games ensured Netease's overall profit. Netease said that its online game revenue in the third quarter was 56.5 million yuan (US$ 6.8 million), up 55.9% from 36.2 million yuan (US$ 4.4 million) in the previous quarter, and up 3.668% from 6.5438+0.2/kloc-0.5 million yuan (US$ 6.5438+0.5 million) in the same period last year. The strong growth of online game revenue is mainly due to the popularity of "A Chinese Odyssey 2" independently developed by Netease. In September 2003, the number of paying users of this game was about 1.2 million.

Netease's advantages in online games are increasingly obvious. Some insiders said that Netease spent more than a year developing, debugging and promoting the game. It is impossible for competitors to catch up with Netease through mergers and acquisitions in a short time like SMS products, "because it takes a long time for gamers to receive a game, usually one year." For Netease, a year's time can help it calmly establish its early advantages.

In fact, from short messages to games, the development of the Internet industry has almost met people's most basic entertainment needs. This is very different from the positioning of the whole Internet industry in 2000. At that time, the general view was that the main significance of the Internet was to change people's trading methods, and meeting people's entertainment needs seemed to be overqualified for the whole Internet.

So some observers say that the power of entertainment is the power of boredom. However, this power can not be ignored, because it can change the pattern of the whole Internet industry, so now more and more Internet companies are beginning to enter the online game market. Online games are also considered to be another important profit growth point after short messages.

Moreover, online games are different from stand-alone electronic game consoles, and there is no piracy problem, because users must log on to the computer server and pass the payment authentication. According to IDC statistics, about 35% ~ 50% of Internet users in Asia are online game players.

Of course, in the game market, China's internet companies have more localization advantages, and the tastes of games developed by western companies are not necessarily suitable for China players. For example, Sony developed role-playing based on medieval European legends.

The game "Endless Mission" has been sought after all over the world, but it has not received the expected response in China, and its distribution has not improved.